What will define the 2010 decade?
While re-watching the X-Files from DVD, it recently hit me how much the entire mood of our society shifted since the 90s; I doubt a show like the X-Files would be able to gain traction in the current environment. So I started thinking about what defines a decade, and the defining moments seem to happen late in the previous decade or early in the current one.
For the 1990s it was the collapse communism in east europe from 1989 to 1991, resulting in a surge of optimism regarding the future.
For the 2000s it was undoubtably the attacks of 9-11, leading to an atmosphere of fear eagerly fed by most politicians, and Bushes crusades.
The sense of freedom that the internet offered to the individual during the late 1990s has been mostly crushed, that particular "war" has been lost to corporations and gouvernments regaining lost power and control (DMCA et al).
Whats it going to be for the 2010 decade? While I personally would love to see something that would cause a resurgence of optimism, the realist/fatalist in me disagrees. The most likely scenario I can currently think of is that the long awaited second financial crash will happen 2011 or 2012; with the worst case scenario of having the US plummeting in stature from the last superpower on earth to a third world/gateway country, defaulting on its debts and pulling a large part of the western european economies down with it (albeit not was far). China and India will continue to prosper, starting a more pronounced shifting of the focus of power to those countries that will define the world for the next 20-30 years.
On a purely speculative level, if this really happens, we might see rising tensions between China (needing resources to keep its economy going) and Russia over the resources in the eastern parts of Siberia that would start to be easier to harvest due to the continuing climate change, that may even lead to a territorial war for resources toward the end of the decade.
What ray of sunshine would you cast into foretelling the next decade?
For the 1990s it was the collapse communism in east europe from 1989 to 1991, resulting in a surge of optimism regarding the future.
For the 2000s it was undoubtably the attacks of 9-11, leading to an atmosphere of fear eagerly fed by most politicians, and Bushes crusades.
The sense of freedom that the internet offered to the individual during the late 1990s has been mostly crushed, that particular "war" has been lost to corporations and gouvernments regaining lost power and control (DMCA et al).
Whats it going to be for the 2010 decade? While I personally would love to see something that would cause a resurgence of optimism, the realist/fatalist in me disagrees. The most likely scenario I can currently think of is that the long awaited second financial crash will happen 2011 or 2012; with the worst case scenario of having the US plummeting in stature from the last superpower on earth to a third world/gateway country, defaulting on its debts and pulling a large part of the western european economies down with it (albeit not was far). China and India will continue to prosper, starting a more pronounced shifting of the focus of power to those countries that will define the world for the next 20-30 years.
On a purely speculative level, if this really happens, we might see rising tensions between China (needing resources to keep its economy going) and Russia over the resources in the eastern parts of Siberia that would start to be easier to harvest due to the continuing climate change, that may even lead to a territorial war for resources toward the end of the decade.
What ray of sunshine would you cast into foretelling the next decade?
19 Comments
RyjkyjI'm excited that with the last decade of almost total information exchange, we'll be able to sift through the crap a little more. Long before 9/11 conspiracy theories and "new age" philosophies abounded, but I think that the last decade might just be the beginning of a time when we really give credence to the "quacks" out there who just might be onto something, and call out the assholes and the bullshitters for what they really are. Of course, most people are assholes and bullshitters so I know there will never be an end. I just like the idea that it might be, just maybe a little bit harder to lie to everyone.
vaporlockCertainly with 80% of the population having immediate access to digital cameras with good video and audio. Ghosts, aliens, UFOs, and supernatural religions better start putting on a good show. With all the crappy videos of UFOs on YouTube we can be sure there are none visiting at this time. Hopefully killing off these distractions will usher in an age of rationality, but with the TeaBaggers as a reference point I'm guessing not.
gwiz665The great dispel.
Supernatural claims are quashed as the information flows free over the Internet or whatever replaces it when Telecommunication Companies try to stifle it with data tax.
God is banished into even smaller gaps to hide in.
The tone of politics will erupt and recede back to a less aggressive stance.
America will economically continue to decline while China and the eastern countries rise.
China's continuing social and technological advances will cause weather problems unlike what we've seen so far, if they have to go through the same dirty steps we in the western world did. Eventually, the western world will hopefully help them to skip the worst ecological steps in the energy production.
Entertainment will continue its current trend of getting more and more personalized. The same will happen with news. The two will merge and it will be hard to tell them apart.
The Simpsons will continue all through the decade. Futurama will be cancelled again. South Park will hit dire straits but continue nonetheless. Family Guy will continue. American Dad will be cancelled. Cleveland Show will be cancelled. Joss Whedon will make a new show; it will be cancelled.
3D will fail.
The Optical Discs (cd, dvd, bluray etc) will vanish and Solid State Disks will be common place.
Telephones will become wallets and Cash will be obsolete, only used by people who don't yet embrace the digital credit/debit card.
Facebook will only continue to grow and the 2010 will see people as far more connected. The Internet will reach more people than ever before, and the speeds will increase in general, but not unexpectedly so.
Computers will continue their trend of getting "wider" instead of "higher" - more cores will be added, frequencies will on average reach 4-5 GHz but not much higher. Processor companies will hit the physical ceiling on their processors when they cannot make the process any smaller with silicon. Quantum processors will start to show signs of life and might even start to become marketable.
Global Warming will continue to happen like it does now, it won't be catastrophically bad, but it will be there. Emissions in the west will lower, but the east will offset it. If Africa starts getting in gear it will only get worse.
Polls will show that Obama will not be reelected, but in debates he will flatten the opponent and he will get four more years. Fox will claim foul play and try to foul play the other way. Jon Stewart will cover it and it will be hilarious. Also, netrunner will sift it.
The Sift will change form from what we know now. I hope it will last, but it's hard to say at this point.
More things will happen. Good and bad.
blankfistLet me try my top 21 predictions for the next decade! A lot of this will be US centric.
1. HDTV dimensions will increased from 1920x1080 to 3840x2160.
2. Screens will be increased to print pixel depths. 300dpi is only the beginning.
3. An affordable, flexible LCD material will change the tech and advertising world. Maybe the material can be cut to fit any size?
4. The war in Iraq will be over. But the occupation will last for decades. Other wars in the Middle East will continue.
5. Sarah Palin will never be President.
6. The US Deficit will grow to a historical high. As the Dollar and the Renminbi compete for world currency a new Cold War will be declared.
7. Top 40 music will suck.
8. The browser will be integrated as part of the OS and no longer treated as just software. Your work software (IDEs, Microsoft Word, Excel, etc.) will be treated as online plug-ins, savable (with versioning) in the cloud.
9. Electricity will be wireless.
10. Reality Shows will be the new sitcom. Again.
11. China's working class will stage small worker union revolts, but the scale and number will be dramatically inflated by the media.
12. Tommy Lee Jones, Adam Ant, Joel Coen, Matt Groening, Bill Clinton, Lorne Michaels, Sam Elliot, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Steve Jobs and Roy Scheider. One of them will probably pass away.
13. Google will acquire Facebook.
14. Apple's stock will drop if Jobs passes away. They'll try to embody the innovate spirit of Jobs, but they'll miss the mark and stick to just updating the current products like iPod, iPhone, Macbooks, etc.
15. There will be an assassination attempt on a Congressman. Congress will pass into law the Vigilant Act that declares DC to "be at war". As a result no civilians except current residents are permitted to enter. Under the Act any type of search and seizure in DC is legal. To counteract the bad press, the America Museum is opened in Virginia.
16. GM will file for bankruptcy.
17. Like the huge increase in gas prices as become part of day for the US, the people will grow accustomed to the high rate of unemployment. Politicians will no longer talk about gas prices or unemployment.
18. Marijuana is legalized in three states. It's legalized for medicinal use in seventeen states.
19. Autism is linked to the artificial sweetener, Aspartame.
20. Most internet enabled TVs and projectors become equipped with a'la carte system of channel ordering. So you only buy what channels you want streamed to your tv.
21. A new phone technology is developed that works a lot like bit torrent. The phone's signal piggy backs off other phones in the area, and the more phones in an area the better the signal. Most people, however, turn this feature off because it's rumored to be a security weakness.
BoneRemakeIs this for Amuricans only ?
gwiz665@blankfist
re #2: Screens will not go over 300 dpi, because higher fidelity is wasted on our lousy eyes. 300 dpi on a 22" screen will be about 6000 x 3000px. On 27" it will be 7000x4000. I think the 300dpi mark might become a new marketing standard like apple is pushing "Retina display".
Ipad 2 or 3 will be 2048x1536 and marketed as Retina Display, even though it's only ~280 dpi.
re #12: My money's on Roy Scheider being the guy who passes away, since he passed away in 2008.
kronosposeidon1. Someone (a state or a terrorist organization) will detonate a nuclear bomb - to kill people, not as a test. We can't keep the nuclear genie in the bottle forever. If a weapon is made, it will be used.
2. Zack Snyder will direct the film about it.
probieHere are my predictions:
1. Trash from consumer products begins to reach epic proportions.
2. Hospitals will begin using a simpler triage system to handle the influx of patients.
3. Starbucks coffee shops will begin a pilot program by offering other services than just coffee and wi-fi.
4. Language will continue to change by incorporating even more slang and "valley speak".
5. Some corporations, in an effort to re-image themselves, will begin changing their brand names. Overwhelming success is first witnessed when fast food chain Fuddruckers changes its name to Futtbuckers.
6. A small upstart bottling company in Arkansas debuts a new sport drink on the market: Brawndo
peggedbearevolutions will continue to be televised. the arab world will see democracy. and theyll be disappointed.
israel and iran will start shit with eachother. the us will get involved. weapons factories will be the only things still in operation.
cable news will reach hysterical new heights, and only the south will continue listening
states will begin pulling out of medicaid programs in droves. social services will be cut across the board. crime and abuse and alcoholism rates will sky rocket. the elderly and disabled will be ushered back into institutions, slowly. conditions will deteriote. i will be out of a job. my heart will break.
my kids will grow into teenagers. ill talk to them about safe sex. their generation won't know anything about the civil rights movement. their idea of the civil war and holocaust will be politicized. all their friends will think that cavemen hunted dinosaurs.
gaping disparities in education will persist. the scourge that is the texas standard of education will sweep across most of the country. poor and inner schools will deteriorate further. children will go home hungry.
commercials will get louder.
white people will become a minority in border states, our politicians will be slightly less ridiculous. a chain of accessible taquerias will open across the south west. people will change their idea of "tacos" and ground meat will become a thing of the past. hopefully ill finally learn spanish.
all the cities sitting on top of massive natural gas reserves will begin to sink into their ground as all their children are diagnosed with cancer in droves. class action law suit commercials from cheap legal firms will flood the day time air waves.
there will be more shows about old people having sex. there will be reality shows about aging baby boomers.
everyone will develop histrionic personality disorders.
theyll teach mandarin in public schools.
some states will legalize marijuana.
gay people will get equal rights. mormons will realize it doesn't effect their relationship with their "god" at all.
someone will get assassinated.
assuming, the world doesn't end in 2012.
radxI might get laid.
srd>> ^radx:
I might get laid.
What, again?
srd>> ^peggedbea:
revolutions will continue to be televised. the arab world will see democracy. and theyll be disappointed.
Although to be fair, our version of democracy is akin to the soviet version of communism.
I'd really love to see an attempt at implementing a demarchy as proposed in Alastair Reynolds "Revelation Space" books. For those who didn't read them (been a while since I read them myself, so please excuse any fuzzy memories): It's a sci-fi setting placed a good enough distance into the future; demarchists (demoratic anarchists) are one faction of humanity whose political system comprises of the general population voting over just about anything, removing the need for a centralized gouvernment. To be able to securely vote in the volume neccessary, everyone has an implant and each settlement has a central computer dedicated to distributing and tallying the votes.
srd>> ^blankfist:
Let me try my top 21 predictions for the next decade! A lot of this will be US centric.
1. HDTV dimensions will increased from 1920x1080 to 3840x2160.
2. Screens will be increased to print pixel depths. 300dpi is only the beginning.
3. An affordable, flexible LCD material will change the tech and advertising world. Maybe the material can be cut to fit any size?
4. The war in Iraq will be over. But the occupation will last for decades. Other wars in the Middle East will continue.
5. Sarah Palin will never be President.
6. The US Deficit will grow to a historical high. As the Dollar and the Renminbi compete for world currency a new Cold War will be declared.
7. Top 40 music will suck.
8. The browser will be integrated as part of the OS and no longer treated as just software. Your work software (IDEs, Microsoft Word, Excel, etc.) will be treated as online plug-ins, savable (with versioning) in the cloud.
9. Electricity will be wireless.
10. Reality Shows will be the new sitcom. Again.
11. China's working class will stage small worker union revolts, but the scale and number will be dramatically inflated by the media.
12. Tommy Lee Jones, Adam Ant, Joel Coen, Matt Groening, Bill Clinton, Lorne Michaels, Sam Elliot, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Steve Jobs and Roy Scheider. One of them will probably pass away.
13. Google will acquire Facebook.
14. Apple's stock will drop if Jobs passes away. They'll try to embody the innovate spirit of Jobs, but they'll miss the mark and stick to just updating the current products like iPod, iPhone, Macbooks, etc.
15. There will be an assassination attempt on a Congressman. Congress will pass into law the Vigilant Act that declares DC to "be at war". As a result no civilians except current residents are permitted to enter. Under the Act any type of search and seizure in DC is legal. To counteract the bad press, the America Museum is opened in Virginia.
16. GM will file for bankruptcy.
17. Like the huge increase in gas prices as become part of day for the US, the people will grow accustomed to the high rate of unemployment. Politicians will no longer talk about gas prices or unemployment.
18. Marijuana is legalized in three states. It's legalized for medicinal use in seventeen states.
19. Autism is linked to the artificial sweetener, Aspartame.
20. Most internet enabled TVs and projectors become equipped with a'la carte system of channel ordering. So you only buy what channels you want streamed to your tv.
21. A new phone technology is developed that works a lot like bit torrent. The phone's signal piggy backs off other phones in the area, and the more phones in an area the better the signal. Most people, however, turn this feature off because it's rumored to be a security weakness.
To answer a select few points:
1. I thought 4k displays would be up next? (4096×3072; as a coder I hate widescreens. I need horizontal screen real estate).
3. This will happen sooner than we'd like
7. When did it not?
9. See 3.
Addendum to 21: We will see a surge of private networks, linked by VPNs and shared by friends; mostly done by people trying to run away from all the crass advertisements and data gathering schemes in the net today.
jonnySingular events like the WTC attack that shape an entire decade are pretty rare, so I don't think (and I hope) we don't see anything like that in the next year or two. To me, one of the defining characteristics of the 2000s was civil war, induced by either external or internal forces - Sudan, DRC, Iraq, Afghanistan, Gaza, Georgia, Pakistan, and elsewhere. A lot of that was related either directly or tangentially to 9/11. I'm afraid that what we'll see in the next decade will be more of the same, and worse, the aftermath of civil wars (cf. Somalia).
On the other hand, maybe humanity will be better and the soft revolutions of Tunisia and potentially Egypt will be defining moments of the decade.
NetRunner>> ^gwiz665:
The tone of politics will erupt and recede back to a less aggressive stance.
I think your predictions are all perfectly spot on, except this one.
By 2012, we'll have the Republican presidential candidate openly and unambiguously telling his supporters that if they lose the election, they need to take up arms against the islamofascist Kenyan in the White House.
And I'll sift video of it.
By 2020, the Fox-fueled right-wing crazies will be threatening the lives of Republicans because they're too left-wing, since they don't support repealing anti-lynching laws.
srdNow there's an interesting thought: If Murdoch dies, what will happen to the extremity of Fox' point of view? Does he make them go ever further right, or did it gain a momentum of its own that will cause Fox to fizz out of existance once it hits the long long tail on the far far right?
NetRunner@srd Murdoch won't die. He's actually a vampire.
I don't really think there's anything special that would happen to Fox if you got rid of Murdoch or Roger Ailes. Maybe Murdoch's successor would try to return their media empire to being journalists, rather than anti-journalistic propaganda in support of the power elite, but I suspect the profit motive will keep them spewing out the same old dreck until people finally get sick of it.
MKJ[redacted]
jonnyso much for Egypt going through a "soft" revolution>> ^jonny:
On the other hand, maybe humanity will be better and the soft revolutions of Tunisia and potentially Egypt will be defining moments of the decade.
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